WHAT DO I THINK HERE? Party On! But Merkel will not be as keen, so your timing on when she puts cold water onto this, “oh, it wasn’t as bad as I feared so much on Friday night,” charm offensive….
Written on February 3, 2015 by ozan
WHAT DO I THINK HERE? Party On! But Merkel will not be as keen, so your timing on when she puts cold water onto this, “oh, it wasn’t as bad as I feared so much on Friday night,” charm offensive is crucial here. My personal prediction is that perpetual swaps & “Greek growth linked bonds” won’t exactly fly with her no matter what Lazard/France, Osborne & Obama think or wish. At the end of the day, she is the one “giving the money,” really. But itis very clear that many were either short or scared from what they heard from Greek FM last Friday. So since then, the 2 AM tweets & Paris/London charm offense worked on them. I wouldn’t go against the wind yet, but this will get bumpy again.
TRY & long end were on fire this morning w/ no extra meeting (cut), but Erdogan reaction will be key. South Africa bond auctions also gave a “bull market” result just now. Meanwhile, it is not just about Greece. World deflation fears is still a huge theme with the RBA cut & bad US ISM print the new developments. Is the next “big hope” of rate bears a very strong NFP? Another very important development: Oil continues to rally. Which is a “good” thing. It was “ISIS attacking Kerkuk” on Friday, “refinary strikes” on Monday. But whatever the excuse is, it’s worth watching. It will give some stability to SPX, too. Bottom line: London & NYC/LA rooms will be more relieved to buy risk now. But today’s “it wasn’t as bad as I feared at all” relief is not enough to avoid storms with Her in February, in my personal opinion. Enjoy the Sirtaki. Don’t get too carried away & forget your Alka Seltzer.
If you enjoyed this post Subscribe to our feed
