WHAT DO I THINK HERE? Enabler vs Fundamentals
Written on April 16, 2020 by admin
Posted by mobile phone:
WHAT DO I THINK HERE? We fall hard one day with Main Street reality. But then this morning already rise. Because we have an anchor in the form of Central Banks.If it was economy, fundamentals alone; we could do a “3 steps down, 1 up.” But Enablers ensure we are in “2 up, 1 down” mood.Trump will try to end the day with exclamation mark that he “opens the country” around May 1st. London & Paris can join around May 11. We will see how “normal” it will be though.NYC & LA Mayors hint they -may- have no sports/concerts until 2021.We may say all this Empire etc gloom data looks to past. But the big question is how better we can get by Q2 & Q3. The whole world is not Amazon & Zoom!If Brett is right about 8 mio jobless print today, that will give shock waves. Last 2 Thursdays, Trump’s oil deal hope & Powell’s junk buying bazooka helped. Today’s overshadowing theme can be “opening the country.”They keep trying.We had a fascinating heads of Trading & Research call yesterday. I will re-send summary at the end. Not as bullish as March 24th call, I would say. Despite almost 30% rise sinceMy 3 sub key themes still boil under1) Italy is a big focus. Even though Lagarde buys every day. Now likes of Stiglitz on TV claiming “Italy may drift away.” Francis got into 2s10s BTP steepeners.But I fear politics may first get worse2) Selling oil, buying gold. Like Hsueh in many minds. Can Trump revive it again or will it be second fake?! Crude down at 19. Very relevant3) US Bank results keep coming. Great trading numbers; horrible credit provisions. Big REIT worries.Fed can sure buy more. But things may have to get worse firstLike most EM, Turkey trades troubled. Without global swap lines, she will continue.Pound also falls from 1.2620s to 1.2480s. Forstyh reports they will stick to Brexit among all Corona earthquake. No surprise. But didn’t help.While my global call was on, Dalio claimed on live TV that “holding bonds in this world would be crazy.”Meanwhile core rates ripped again. W/ all due respect, core rates will be bid either because of horrible Main Street slowdown orrrr even if we get a V, because of de facto YCC!Today, equities can shake with 25 mio joblesd headline, but close strong w/ Trump sending people “back to work”GazzzzWhile Dollar remains world’s only reserve currency, I cannot yet abandon her in a historic world crisis.Watch Italy; watch oil & gold’s separate destinies; watch US Credit Defaults, solvency.Despite Main Street woes, tough to retest lows because of Enabler.My hat goes to dear 100 year old Tom for the example he set & resources he raised! 🧿🙏🏻
